Writing 'Fact' in-front of a sentence doesn't make it true.

A particular lobby group has been publishing a list of 'Facts' through Facebook and on flyers, so we thought we'd see how well these facts stood up (note that we haven't missed any out, these are as they are numberd on the flyer):

Fact 1. "Surveys consistantly find that over 60% support for the southerm link..." - Simply not true (they're not off to a good start here) - The only statistically valid, randomly-sampled survey of people in Nelson on this issue was done at the request of NZTA and showed that the majority of people wanted options other than the Southern Link (https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/NSLI-Public-Engagement-Summary-Report-Final.pdf).

Fact 2. "Freight volumes are forecast to increase 68% across the Top of the South by 2042" - True, but this is only a current prediction and the main growth in freight is expected to come primarily from Marlborough (https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/draft-south-island-freight-plan/docs/draft-south-island-freight-plan.pdf). Heavy goods vehicles account for only 6% of vehicles on Rocks Rd. and NZTA are hoping to lower that through the MAX50 trucks for example - yes they are bigger, but only very slightly. They can carry an extra 6 tonnes of freight because they have an additional axle to spread the load meaning they have 'no additional wear on roads per tonne of freight' (http://www.nzta.govt.nz/commercial-driving/permits/high-productivity/50max/). NZTA's aim is 'more freight with fewer trips'. Additionally, freight volumes at the port have been pretty flat and NZTA states in the NZTA Strategic Case document "There is no indication of any significant growth occurring in recent years".

Fact 3. "Nelson's rate of population growth is 8% and 2nd only to Auckland" - The 8% figure is between the 2006 and 2013 census. The annual average grown this just 1.1%. Additionally, because the Nelson and Tasman population sizes are actually quite small, the growth in numbers is also very small. Crucially though, this recent growth is made up almost entirely of those aged over 65 (the growth of the older population in Nelson Marlborough is the highest of any DHB in NZ), an age demographic whose travel patterns are very different to commuters and younger residents.  (refs; What We Can Learn From the 2013 Census, Nelson Marlborough District Board, 2013; Nelson: Census 2013.A summary of key Census results. Nelson City Council, 2014). Additionally, despite our record regional population growth, vehicles on Rocks Rd has been on a declining trend for the last decade: there are now 2000 fewer vehicles/day around rocks road than in 2006 (see graph here from the NZTA Strategic Case document).

 

Traffic Volumes NCC 2006 15

Fact 4. "More than half Nelson's population growth (55%) is occuring in Stoke" - Quite true, check out the massive expansion in retirement villages in Stoke. "Almost half (46 percent) of Nelson’s residents aged 65 and over live in Stoke, where they make up 22 percent of Stoke’s population” (Nelson: Census 2013.A summary of key Census results. Nelson City Council, 2014). A new inner residential zone would allow higher density living close into town, so people wouldn't be forced to live further out as they are now.

Fact 6. "A well designed Southern Link route will include an adjacent cycle way..." That may be the case, but we already have a cycleway and we want to keep it the way that it is. The Southern Link would remove a green cycling/walking corridor into the city and put a highway next to three schools, several day care centres and introduce a significant amount of pollution into airshed A which will affect thousands of people. An ‘adjacent cycleway’ isn’t just a loss of the existing facility, it’s a degrading of the level of service. The proposed replacement would be beside a state highway carrying logging trucks - which will now be climbing a hill, meaning more noise and pollution than on Rocks Rd.

Fact 12. "A pro-link council will make it easier to obtain Government funding for the new arterial route" - and the evidence? Claims made without evidence are by definition opinions, not facts. A pro-link council could make it difficult to implement alternatives that could negate the need for the link such as clearways.

Fact 14. "Rocks Rd. is the minimum 3.5m width allowed for a state highway..." yes, that’s why a widened footprint with improved cycle lanes and wide shared path is currently proposed (with SH in place, see point 6). Additionally, the width of the caridgeway varies hugely.  There are some places where indeed a generous shared path would be able to be built entirely on the existing caridgeway, but some of it would have to be built out over the sea. This is not difficult as Connollys Quay (the fishing Platform at Magazine point) has shown.

Fact 15. "A well-designed and purpose built arterial route will be safer because there will be fewer intersections..."  The route from Annesbrook  roundabout to the port via Tahuna has just one set of lights, the route over the Southern Link would have to have at least 4 (Toi-Toi, Glouster, Halifax and QE2 drive).

Fact 17. "The number of traffic movements on Rocks Rd. doubles during the summers' logging..." We're not sure where this 'double' figure comes from and we assume it's made up since the graphs that NZTA published in the Southern Link Business case document (see below) don't indicate anything like that. In any case, the vast majority of traffic on Rocks Rd. is cars (6% is freight). In summer there is a big increase in tourists and people going to the beach. This will still occur whether we had the Southern Link or not and could be (and should be) easily catered for with a dedicated 'beach bus'.

 

monthly hourly traffic volumes rocks rd

 

Fact 18. "Air pollution levels in the Victory airshed have reduced..." - We are barely meeting the terms of current National Standards for Air Quality.  But the really important point here is that the standard is wrong and under review.  The Parliamentary Commision for the Environment says we should be concerned about long term PM 2.5 exposure, rather than short term PM10.
Below is the graph from the Parlimentoy Commision from the Environment report on Air Quality in NZ 2015.  This is an important document as she is independent from government and from spin!
The graph attached is a screenshot from page 29 of the report, the only thing I've added is the underlining and arrow under Nelson (Airshed) A.
A couple of things to note about this is that Nelson (airshed) A (Victory) air quality is substantially worse than anything shown here for Auckland or Christchurch.
Lastly to quote from this study:

The WHO is clear that the long-term exposure guidelines are more important than the short-term exposure guidelines because the health impacts on the population are much greater.

“When evaluating the WHO Air Quality Guidelines and interim targets, it is generally recommended that the annual average take precedence over the 24-hour average....”42

In addition, it is now widely accepted among air quality scientists that PM2.5 concentrations are a better indicator of health impacts across the population than PM10 concentrations. This is because the smaller particles are, the more damaging they are to human health.43

It follows that although all four guidelines are important, the most important is the guideline for long-term exposure to PM2.5."

So the PCE couldn't be more clear long term PM2.5 is the most important measure and Victory is 40% over this gudieline (A note here the NZ Standard for Air Quality is in terms of SHORT term PM10,s, there is no NZ standard for PM2.5, shot or long term - the PCE says there should be - the finer particles (PM2.5 is Particulate Matter 2.5 microns or smaller, PM 10 is 10 microns) are much worse for your health, not just lodging in the airways, but the ultrafine particles (PM1.0 and below which make up some of the PM) can even penetrate the gaseous membranes in our lungs and get into our blood.  
It also needs to be noted here that the source of the particulate matter is important - The Envir. Court 2004 into the Southern Link was presented with evidence (attached below) that the "nasties" adsorbed to the surface of the carbon particles were a factor of 10x worse from diesels than they are from woodburning.  This is not to suggest that woodsmoke is benign, just that diesel PM is much worse.  The Envir. Court didn't rule on this particular bit of evidence, saying they weren't provided with enough information (at that time) to show the suspected worse health outcomes from the greater PAH numbers.

PM2.5 Long Term Exp. Graph

PAH in Woodsmoke cp Diesel

 

"If you say it often enough, people start to believe it"

It's the crude but seemingly effective mantra of modern politics and we're seeing this tactic being used constantly by those arguing for the Southern Link.

So lets look at some of the key phrases we hear repeated a lot.

"We have a congestion problem"

There seems to be little argument about this from many people, but we don't agree. Yes we have traffic queues at peak times, particularly during school term times, and we've had significant traffic queues during the recent storm-water upgrades and Rocks Rd. cliff stabalisation. By world standards, and even New Zealand Standards, Nelson does not have a congestion problem though. Additionally, if you do consider that a slightly longer journey time is a problem, then the chances are you're doing OK because for an increasing number of people there are much more pressing problems, such as how they're going to feed their family, buy a house, get a job or afford the heating bill. If there is a problem here it's that we have a broken system that puts profits and self interest over the wider needs of the people and over the environment. Congestion is a symptom of a system that removed railways, underfunded public transport and cycle-ways and instead built roads. Most countries throughout the world now recognise that this was a major mistake and they are putting in measures to undo it and re-address the balance.

"Most people want it (the Southern Link)"

If we polled cyclists and asked if we should build a new highway or put more money into cycleways and public transport we'd expect a biased response. We accept that. Similarly, if the AA does a poll or Nick Smith does a poll we have to accept that there will be a considerable bias. The NZTA Southern Link survey didn't have a bias though, right ? Not true, without even going into the way the survey was presented, there is a heavy bias towards the people that consider that we have a problem to solve (see above) and also feel strongly enough to respond. We also have to consider the fact that the real costs of the Southern Link are not known (financially, socially and environmentally) and while these are expected to be considerable, it would have been difficult for people to factor those in. The closest we have to a sample of public opinion is the telephone survey which contacted 500 people at random. Even this will have a bias towards those at home with landlines (and therefore younger people have a lower representation), however this did indicate that most people do not want the Southern Link, which is even more significant when you consider this survey was taken during considerable and ongoing congestion caused by the Waimea stormwater upgrade.

"We need a third arterial route to cope with an increase in vehicles"

Many people, including some who are opposed to the Southern Link, are mistaken in thinking that we've had an increase in vehicles and freight on our arterial routes and that this is causing an increase in congestion. NZTA's own figures over the last 6 and 10 years respectively show that there has been no significant increase in vehicles or freight. This isn't steady growth, it's no growth.

 

trafficvolumes

 

"A new highway will fix the congestion problem"

OK, so ignoring the question of whether we have a congestion problem or not for a moment, and lets assume we do. A new highway, an additional road that will carry more vehicles, will only shift the problem. Even worse, it's likely that it will exacerbate the problem by increasing the amount of cars that enter our city or queue at the end of the Richmond deviation. Additionally, unlike motor vehicle volumes, the number of people cycling or using public transport is steadily increasing and creating a new highway that encourages more private vehicle use is likely to undermine that. Urban planning specialist Lewis Mumford famously wrote that increasing capacity for cars was "Like the tailor’s remedy for obesity – letting out the seams of the trousers and loosening the belt – this does nothing to curb the greedy appetites that have caused the fat to accumulate."

In the run up to the upcoming elections, be very wary of any prospective councillors using these phrases and challenge them. Be even more wary of anybody who's fallback response is along the lines of "we just need it" or "just get on with it".

Let's make sure we have a council that is made up of people with a real, sustainable vision for the future of Nelson that will have long term benefits for everybody, not just a few.

Nelson Southern Link Investigation Feedback

Today (24th April) is the last day to send in feedback to the NZTA Southern Link Investigation. If you haven't already, please spend just a couple of minutes filling in the on-line form (https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/NSL-feedback) or simply send your thoughts to nelson-southern-link@nzta.govt.nz. Please also encourage your partner, children, parents, grandparents, friends etc. to send feedback too.

The focus of Bicycle Nelson Bay has always been to encourage active transport which we see as being a key component to creating a more liveable city. We do not support the building of a highway that will adversely effect the health and well-being of many people in Nelson, in particular those children at the schools and kindergartens along the route. Equally, we don't support approaches that encourage an increase in motor vehicles past existing schools and through our communities.

It is clear that our existing infrastructure is extremely inefficient and it's not working. Many journeys that are currently done by car are very short and could easily be made by cycling or walking. Additionally, we know that public transport has the potential to drastically reduce the number of vehicles on the road. Technology also has the potential of reducing the need for some journeys as does the layout of our city (inner city living for example). In essence, there are many ways that vehicle volumes can be reduced, especially with an increase in (predominantly elderly) population. If we want to create and attractive, healthy city that we can be proud of, we think this has to be the focus.

The feedback that Bicycle Nelson Bays submitted can be viewed here http://bnb.org.nz/images/docs/16Apr21-BNB-NZTA-SLiV3.pdf

Retro Ride 2016 - April 2nd, 2pm

advert 2016

Retro Ride is an easy, kid-friendly loop of Nelson’s awesome bike paths, ending with a mini-festival at the Honest Lawyer venue and a FREE BIKE on offer.

Ride starts 3pm; gather for registration from 2pm. Gold coin donation. Costume (from any era of biking!) optional.

Sponsored by Get Moving, Retro Ride is a family-friendly, sociable cycle round the off-road Great Taste and Railway Reserve bike paths -about 10km- starting & finishing at the Point Paddock of the Honest Lawyer Pub & Country where we'll have-

 

  • Prizes for best-dressed retro bike of any era
  • Ice cream/coffee cart
  • Big Bike Tune Up
  • Show & Shine of historic/retro bikes -display your bike!.
  • Bouncy castle
  • Kid's Bike Obstacle Course

Avoiding Traffic Queues

Commute Alternative

What does your commute look like ?

With the ongoing road works, particularly on Waimea Rd., why not try cycle commuting after the Easter weekend. The Railway Reserve and St. Vincent St. cycle way offer an easy, pleasant ride into town with no traffic queues. Arrive at work invigorated, less stressed and of course you'll be saving money and getting fit at the same time !

If you live too far out to cycle in all the way, why not put your bike in the car (or on the bus) and just cycle from Annesbrook for example.

Designed by Light Ltd.

Copyright © 2018. All Rights Reserved.